Great Lakes Forecasting
Research conducted under the ecosystem forecasting theme aims to develop forecasts for physical hazards, water levels, harmful algal blooms (HABs), and fish recruitment and production.
Academic partners and NOAA-GLERL continue to develop a HABs transport forecasting system that 1) rectifies imaging spectrometer with lake observation data, and 2) takes into account a refined HAB particle trajectory model. Work also continues on modeling the transport and subsequent forecasting of viral and bacterial sources in the Great Lakes, how this impacts beach closures, and how these models can be coordinated into developing and implementing a generalized approach to nowcasting, forecasting, and product delivery.
Climate change-related work focuses on downscaling global models to the Great Lakes. A value added relative to global models is the depiction of lake effect precipitation, where a generalized increase under higher greenhouse gas concentrations intensifies over lake effect zones during the winter season. Greater accuracy in the physical modeling of ice processes should lead to a greater confidence in this result. Improved predictions on impacts from climate change continue by filling in gaps in Great Lakes hydrology models that look at water balance and levels (as influenced by nearshore wave-current interactions), as well as sediment transport and water quality.
Finally, projects under this research theme also continue to look at the relationship between water quality and pelagic production/interactions through modeling and forecasting in order to better understand the causes and effects--and to propose solutions for--eutrophication, hypoxia, invasive species, and habitat modification.
