The ability to forecast and project physical and ecological dynamics is a critical area of need in the Great Lakes region. To address this need, CILER supports research that develops forecasts for physical hazards, water levels, harmful algal blooms, and fish recruitment and production. A range of research approaches are used to develop and make these forecasts operational including empirical analyses of current and historic datasets, field-based experimental and monitoring programs of ecosystem conditions, and development, parameterization, and validation of integrated forecasting models. CILER currently supports several projects that fall under this theme, including:

• ECOFORE: Hypoxia Assessment in Lake Erie
• Nutrient Dynamics in Lake Erie Hypoxia
• Hypoxia Effects on Norther Gulf of Mexico
• Microcystis in Great Lakes Regions
• Physical Structuring of Fish Recruitment and Food-Web Dynamics in the Great Lakes
• Forecasting Beach Closing: Harmful Algal Blooms and Water Quality in the Great Lakes
• Nearshore Transport: Modeling Observations and Beach Closure Forecasting
• Web Development to Improve Understanding of Lake Water Levels
• Modeling wind-induced Circulation in Lake Champlain: Effects of Bathymetry and Stratification
• Lake Erie Hydrodynamic Modeling

The Great Lakes have been heavily impacted by a multitude of invasive aquatic species. To help reduce the prevalence and impacts of invasive species in the Great Lakes, the new Cooperative Institute will foster and support research projects that combine effective research, management, and outreach programs in the region. Most of the projects under this theme will be focus on the prevention, monitoring, detection, and control of invasives and on better understanding of the range of ecosystem impacts.

• NOBOB Salinity Tolerance (NOBOB-S): Eradicating aquatic nuisance species from the residual ballast water of NOBOB vessels using salt solutions.
• An Integrated Assessment of the Potential for Further Invasion of the Colonial Ascidian, Didemnum sp., in Large Marine Ecosystems in the United States
• NOBOB Best Management Practices
• Understanding Interactions between Harmful Phytoplankton and Grazers: Variation in Dreissenid Mussel Effects across Nutrient Gradients
• Cercopagis pengoi, A New Invader of Lake Michigan: Food Web Interactions and Competition with Bythotrephes Part 2

Effective environmental management requires ready access to real-time and historical data on the climate, meteorology, chemistry, geology, and biology that affect the Great Lakes ecosystem. These types of data are also essential for monitoring and understanding ecosystem responses to natural and anthropogenic conditions. The most effective approach for generating these types of real-time observations is through expansive networks of observing systems that can take consistent measurements for comparison across the region, and can be seamlessly integrated with terrestrial, nearshore, mobile, and airborne systems. Research fostered by CILER in this thematic area will address deficiencies in observing systems in the Great Lakes region, by focusing on observing system data and platforms, data management and communications, and data products and forecasts.

• Great Lakes Biological Monitoring Program
• Development of an Integrated Data Management System for the Lake Erie Integrated Coastal Observing System
• CoastWatch Operations

The ecological integrity of the Great Lakes ecosystem is supported by an impressive amount of biological diversity. Numerous components of this diversity, however, have been identified critically imperiled and threatened. To address the current status of resources in the Great Lakes, the new CILER will promote projects that develop the technology and research to protect, restore, or enhance priority coastal land and water habitats throughout the basin. The main objectives of these projects will be to assess the vulnerability and resilience of Great Lakes regional resources and to support the restoration and rehabilitation of degraded habitats.

• Great Lakes Biological Monitoring Program
• Status and Trends of Benthic Macroinvertebrates in Lake Michigan
• Nearshore Transport: Modeling Observations and Beach Closure Forecasting

Many environmental issues in the Great Lakes region are complex, multi-dimensional, and in need of integrated approaches. Some of the most pressing of these issues include fisheries, forest, and agriculture management; habitat restoration and conservation; protected areas management; climate change impacts and adaptation in urban and rural environments; and coastal community development. In order to address these complex resource issues, CILER will support projects employing integrated assessments in order to generate policy-relevant and synthetic efforts that help guide long-term resource use in the basin. CILER currently has one main project that employs an integrated assessment in Lake Erie to better understand the causes and correctives of hypoxia (ECOFOR 2006: Assessing the causes, consequences, and remedies for hypoxia in Lake Erie).

• FCA: Detroit River Fish Consumption Advisories
• An Integrated Assessment of the Potential for Further Invasion of the Colonial Ascidian, Didemnum sp., in Large Marine Ecosystems in the United States

The primary goal of CILER's Education and Outreach theme is to facilitate education and outreach activities for NOAA in the Great Lakes region. Engaging appropriate education and outreach partners and coordinating efforts form cornerstone in developing this capacity. In addition to working with education efforts inside NOAA and across the region, CILER will work specifically with the Great Lakes Sea Grant Network in this regard. Sea Grant has long recognized the public demand for translation of science into a format that can be understood by the general public and used in decision-making, and has established a Marine and Aquatic Literacy Theme to address needs in formal and informal education. We will take advantage of that expertise.

• NOAA/UM Great Lakes Seminar Series
• Great Lakes Summer Student Fellowship Program
• Partners-For-Excellence Summer High School Intern Program
• National Ocean Sciences Bowl